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April 8, 2008 at 4:37pm | By A new poll released today by Quinnipiac University shows Hillary Clinton’s lead slipping in Pennsylvania - even among women. Clinton leads Barack Obama by 50% to 44% among likely primary voters. Less than a week earlier, in an April 2nd poll by the university, Clinton was leading Obama by 50% to 41%.
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In a press release issued by the university they noted that “one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 - 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 - 41 percent for her today.”
The poll was conducted from April 3rd to the 6th and surveyed 1,340 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is 2.7 percentage points.
Other items of note:
* White voters for Clinton 56 - 38 percent, down from 59 - 34 percent last week.
* Black voters back Obama 75 - 17 percent, compared to 73 - 11 percent.
* Men are for Obama 48 - 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 46 percent tie last week.
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 38 percent.
“With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton’s strongest areas - whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“The Pennsylvania primary is like a game of horseshoes: Sen. Obama needs only to come close to be considered the winner - taking away, perhaps fatally, Sen. Clinton’s argument she is the candidate best able to defeat Sen. John McCain in critical swing states like Pennsylvania,” said Richards.
On the economy (Clinton), the war in Iraq (Obama) and health care (Clinton) …
Voters who list the economy as their top issue give Clinton a small 49 - 45 percent margin over Obama, down from 53 - 39 percent. Voters who cite the war in Iraq back Obama 51 - 44 percent. Voters worried about health care go with Clinton 62 - 32 percent.
Strong leader (Clinton) versus a trusted leader (Obama)…
Among those looking for a strong leader, Clinton leads 64 - 31 percent. Obama leads 59 - 32 percent among voters looking for a trustworthy candidate.
| Tot | Men | Wom | Wht | Blk | Reagan Dems |
Union HsHolds |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | 50% | 44% | 54% | 56% | 17% | 55% | 52% |
| Obama | 44 | 48 | 41 | 38 | 75 | 37 | 43 |
| Alghny | Philly | NE | SE | NW | SW | Central | |
| Clinton | 57% | 37% | 63% | 42% | 57% | 60% | 46% |
| Obama | 39 | 55 | 33 | 53 | 37 | 31 | 45 |
| Age | Age | No col | Col | Income | …… | ||
| 18-44 | 45+ | degree | degree | <50k | >50k | ||
| Clinton | 40% | 55% | 54% | 39% | 53% | 49% | |
| Obama | 55 | 38 | 38 | 57 | 41 | 47 |
Question 2 - Is your opinion of — Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you
heard enough about her?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS…………………………
Reagan Union
Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds
Favorable 71% 67% 75% 74% 56% 66% 73%
Unfavorable 23 27 20 21 34 29 21
Hvn’t hrd enough 4 5 3 4 5 3 4
REFUSED 2 2 2 2 4 2 1
Age Age No col Col INCOME……
18-44 45+ degree degree <50k >50k
Favorable 69% 72% 73% 66% 75% 69%
Unfavorable 25 22 20 29 18 27
Hvn’t hrd enough 3 4 4 3 5 3
REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of — Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t
you heard enough about her?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18
2008 2008 2008
Favorable 71 71 71
Unfavorable 23 23 23
Hvn’t hrd enough 4 4 4
REFUSED 2 2 2
Question 3 - Is your opinion of — Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you
heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS…………………………
Reagan Union
Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds
Favorable 67% 70% 64% 62% 91% 60% 66%
Unfavorable 19 17 21 23 3 23 23
Hvn’t hrd enough 11 11 11 12 6 12 11
REFUSED 3 1 3 3 - 5 1
Age Age No col Col INCOME……
18-44 45+ degree degree <50k >50k
Favorable 75% 63% 62% 80% 61% 73%
Unfavorable 18 20 22 13 24 17
Hvn’t hrd enough 7 13 13 5 12 9
REFUSED 1 3 3 2 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of — Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you
heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18
2008 2008 2008
Favorable 67 63 61
Unfavorable 19 21 19
Hvn’t hrd enough 11 14 17
REFUSED 3 2 3
The effect of Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell’s endorsement of Clinton…
Question 10 - As you may know, Governor Ed Rendell has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. Does Rendell’s endorsement of Clinton make you more likely to vote for Clinton, less likely to vote for Clinton, or doesn’t it make a difference?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..............................
Reagan Union
Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds
More likely 8% 10% 7% 9% 4% 5% 9%
Less likely 9 11 8 9 13 13 12
Doesn’t make diff 82 79 85 82 81 82 79
Age Age No col Col INCOME……
18-44 45+ degree degree <50k >50k
More likely 10% 8% 9% 6% 7% 11%
Less likely 7 10 9 10 9 10
Doesn’t make diff 82 82 81 84 84 79
The effect of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senator Bob Casey’s endorsement of Obama…
Question 11 - As you may know, Senator Bob Casey has endorsed Barack Obama for President.
Does Casey’s endorsement of Obama make you more likely to vote for Obama, less
likely to vote for Obama, or doesn’t it make a difference?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS…………………………
Reagan Union
Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds
More likely 5% 6% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4%
Less likely 7 7 8 8 1 8 9
Doesn’t make diff 87 86 88 87 93 87 87
Age Age No col Col INCOME……
18-44 45+ degree degree <50k >50k
More likely 6% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%
Less likely 5 9 8 6 10 6
Doesn’t make diff 89 87 87 89 85 89
Question 16 - Which best describes your family’s financial situation - Getting ahead,
falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS…………………………
Reagan Union
Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds
Getting ahead 13% 17% 11% 12% 19% 13% 14%
Falling behind 21 17 24 21 18 21 23
Holding steady 65 66 64 66 62 66 61
Age Age No col Col INCOME……
18-44 45+ degree degree <50k >50k
Getting ahead 20% 10% 10% 21% 8% 21%
Falling behind 22 20 23 16 27 16
Holding steady 57 69 66 63 65 63
TREND: Which best describes your family’s financial situation - getting ahead,
falling behind, or holding steady?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18
2008 2008 2008
Getting ahead 13 14 19
Falling behind 21 19 19
Holding steady 65 67 62
DK/NA 1 - 1
TREND: If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and
the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama?
*This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS……
TOTAL……………………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 50 50 53 49 52
Obama 44 41 41 43 36
MEN……………………………..
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 44 46 45 43 49
Obama 48 46 48 50 39
WOMEN……………………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 54 54 59 53 54
Obama 41 37 35 39 34
WHITE……………………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 56 59 61 56 58
Obama 38 34 33 37 31
BLACK……………………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 17 11 18 23 10
Obama 75 73 76 69 71
WHITE MEN………………………..
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 49 52 52 48 52
Obama 42 40 42 45 36
WHITE WOMEN………………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 62 63 68 61 62
Obama 34 29 26 31 28
AGE 18-44………………………..
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 40 42 39 41 52
Obama 55 51 57 58 41
AGE 45+………………………….
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 55 54 60 52 51
Obama 38 37 34 39 34
NO COLLEGE DEGREE…………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 54 55 57 52 57
Obama 38 36 37 39 28
COLLEGE DEGREE……………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 39 40 45 41 40
Obama 57 53 50 53 53
SOUTHEAST………………………..
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 42 44 52 41 42
Obama 53 49 44 53 54
INCOME <50K...........................
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 53 53 57 52 59
Obama 41 38 38 40 30
INCOME 50K+………………………
Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
Clinton 49 49 49 46 43
Obama 47 45 46 48 48
On the Web
Quinnipiac University Poll
Read related stories: Politics · Campaign '08
3 Comments
#1. Stephen Gianelli 04.08.2008
You need to update your polling information.
In Pennsylvania today, April 8, 2008, , two weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 56% to 38%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre.
The results are almost identical to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago.
Then, Clinton led by 19. Today, 18. In between, however, in a SurveyUSA tracking poll released last week, Obama had closed to within 12 points.
#2. Paul Kekai Manansala, Obama Blog 04.08.2008
The Obama campaign has carried out a great voter registration drive in Pennsylvania.
#3. Stephen Gianelli 04.08.2008
Paul,
How do you think the PA registration drive will shake out in terms of votes for obama?
Second, I am hearing that a substantial # of Republicans have registered as Democrats in anticipation of the April 22 primary in the Keystone State. Is there any polling or other assessment beng talked about in your camp as to whether these Republican to Democrat converts will vote for Obama, or is this percieved as Republicans messing with the Dems?
Thanks,
StephenG
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